The Brexit vote has left senior EU climate officials reeling, with shock and depression already mingling with fears that the “dirty man of Europe” may stage a comeback.

Officials will be closely scanning the British political scene for signs of commitment to the Paris agreement, the 2020 climate targets and, above all, the bloc’s carbon market, the Emissions Trading System (ETS).

Committing to stay in the ETS would demonstrate that the new UK government was a sovereign state which can honour international deals like Paris, they say.

Britain is unlikely to renege on an emissions reduction target for 2020 that it has already substantially met. But the country is lagging on renewable energy goals and credible enforcement mechanisms there have just disappeared.

While a mutual interest is seen in “playing nicely” on climate politics, much will hinge on whether other EU states see a new working arrangement as a model for repudiating bloc membership.

Next month’s planned launch of emissions reductions targets for individual states by 2030 is “now in question,” sources say.

In Brussels, the UK has come to be viewed as an ambitious climate actor, which has played a positive role as a channel to Barack Obama’s climate-sensitive US administration. There are some fears of a rightwards lurch that could leave it an offshore environmentally-deregulated zone.

“We all remember the dirty man of Europe,” one senior official said. “He might be on of his way back”.