Iowa kicks off 2016 U.S. presidential race – Will it be Trump vs. Clinton, or Trump vs. Sanders?

Today is the end of what could be the wildest week of modern American politics. Could it be that voters, real people in Iowa will give victory to the twin candidates of historic change. Donald Trump, man of the Right, promises to make America great again. The populist who will say anything and nothing will stick to him, seems to have captured the hearts and minds of mostly white Americans who are fed up with the old political establishment and want to see and hear more from a man who “says it as it is” or “will say what no one else dares to say”. The American billionaire “Wilders”. He may be a favorite now, but just like most populists, his phenomenon will eventually blow over or, if elected to lead the Republican party, he will have to move to the Center, if he wants to have a chance at winning the presidency. The Republicans, the party people, are not really on his side but he has managed to turn this into a selling point for the anti-establishment vote.

Socialist Bernie Sanders promises to head Left and stay there from here to the last year of his presidency. Some of his fans are hopeful millennials. Some of them are like him: fed-up white men. His supporters distrust the media, oppose free trade, think America should stop spending money to “prop up other countries.” They believe Sanders is the rare “fair and honest politician.” His message is simple and clear: the rich have corrupted the political and economic systems, the little guy is getting hosed by these millionaires and billionaires, “enough is enough.” “Are you guys ready for a radical idea?” he asked Saturday. “Together,” he said, “we are going to create an economy that works for all of us and not just the 1 per cent.” Clinton attacked him by asking the question “Where will he find the money to bring free education and health care for all?” and went on to describe his plans as unrealistic. Sanders respondent with a television spot that implies that Clinton accepted lots of money in speaking fees from Goldman Sachs.

Like Republican Donald Trump, Sanders has excited voters who loathe everything about the political system. Only 10 days  ago Vermont Sen. Sanders had opened up an eight-point lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, leading her in Iowa 51% to 43% among likely Democratic presidential caucus-goers. Right now Clinton has taken the lead over Sanders, but by just 3%.

Could Trump and Sanders be the candidates everyone will be talking about tomorrow morning? Could this be the start of something big in America or simply the latest tectonic shift from the time of this country’s reasonably centrist politics.

 

According to the Huffington Post: “In the Republican caucus, Trump leads Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 28 percent to 23 percent. In the Democratic caucus, Clinton leads Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), 45 percent to 42 percent.”

The polls suggested a tight race especially for the Democrats. Despite Clinton and Sanders running neck-and-neck, Clinton has the more secure lead. A larger percentage of Clinton supporters (83 percent) say their mind is made up than Sanders backers (69 percent). And among those who say they will definitely attend their precinct caucus on Monday night, Clinton leads, 47 percent to 41 percent.

Neither candidate enters the final days with any apparent momentum: In the previous poll, conducted Jan. 7-10, Clinton led Sanders by just 2 points, 42 percent to 40 percent. “Our campaign has come a very long way in eight months,” said Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver. “In late May, according to the Register/Bloomberg poll, we were down by 41 points. Today we are virtually tied.”

Both major candidates remain popular, the poll shows: Clinton is viewed favorably by 81 percent of likely caucus-goers, and Sanders is viewed favorably by 82 percent. Four-in-five Democrats said they agree with the statement “It is time for a woman president” – but 68 percent said it “would be OK to have a president who describes himself as a Democratic socialist.”

Republican Donald Trump, who has a slight edge over Ted Cruz in Iowa, predicted that “many” senators would “soon” endorse him rather than their Texas colleague. Trump didn’t name any such senators, and none immediately emerged.

Trump also continued his attacks on Cruz, while Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who is running third, pitched himself as the pragmatic choice for Republicans who want to win in November.

“I’m somebody that knows how to win. I close the deal,” Trump today told ABC’s “This Week” anchor George Stephanopoulos. “But I never thought I’d have 24 point leads in different states.”

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, sought to claim financial momentum in the race for the Democratic nomination, saying it has raised $20 million in January, suggesting he will continue to match front-runner Hillary Clinton’s vast resources.

One development — the weather — was beyond the candidates’ control. Snowfall forecast to start Monday night appeared more likely to hinder the hopefuls in their rush out of Iowa than the voters. Republican John Kasich already has decamped to New Hampshire.

Why is the Iowa caucus so important?

Iowa offers only a small contingent of the delegates who will determine the nominees, but the game of expectations counts for far more than the electoral math in the state. Campaigns worked aggressively to set those expectations in their favor for Iowa, New Hampshire and beyond.

“If people come out to vote, I think you’re going to look at one of the biggest political upsets in the modern history of our country,” Sanders told CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Clinton said she had been subjected to “years of scrutiny, and I’m still standing.” On ABC’s “This Week,” she said, “I feel vetted … and I think I’m the best person to be the nominee and to defeat whoever they nominate in November.”

Trump said “I don’t have to win” in Iowa, before adding that he believes he has “a good chance” of victory.

Cruz said on “Fox News Sunday” that he’s attracting “the old Reagan coalition” ranging from anti-establishment conservatives to working-class Democrats.

The last-minute scramble comes on the same day that campaigns will file campaign financial disclosures showing how much they’ve raised this month.

The Sanders campaign announced that it has raised more than $20 million this month. That means his pace is picking up. Earlier, his campaign said it raised $33 million over the last three months of 2015, compared to $37 million for Hillary Clinton’s campaign in the same time period.

In the last major preference poll before the caucuses, Trump had the support of 28 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers, with Cruz at 23 percent and Rubio at 15 percent. The Iowa Poll, published by The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg, also found Clinton with 45 percent support to Sanders’ 42 percent in the Democratic race. The poll was taken from Tuesday to Friday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.