the biggest foreign policy mistake ever made by turkey

By Hakan Aksay

I am in Moscow. Surprised, sad and angry. Yesterday was the day that they screwed it all up. Yesterday the perception of Turkey in Russia darkened suddenly. Turkey became the country which causes the most questions, gets heavily criticized and causes the greatest anger.

Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft yesterday. The Russians have long seen the Turks as a close partner, a good neighbor and, why not, a friend, although they do not agree on a lot with them, and so they were shocked when the Turks have used weapons against them.

Турция (Turchia), namely Turkey in Russian. During the 26 years I lived in Turkey I have never heard and seen such a frequent use of the word “Turchia” in one day. This happened yesterday. The confidence between the two countries was severely wounded and the traces of that loss of confidence will not be erased so easily.

The Russians understand diplomacy and practice it with patience and determination. Regardless of whether it is fair or unfair, right or wrong, their attitude is always well-thought-of and firm.

Russia is a large country. Maybe her wings are broken after the fall of the Soviet Union, maybe the country began being possessed by a complex thanks to the loss of power, but it always remains passionate in recovering and in proving to itself and especially to the world that it remains a great country.

Russia knows, however, how to endure, how to hide her pain, how to be silent if necessary and how to wait for recovery. When, on October 10th, 2012, the Turkish authorities forced the aircraft that was flying from Moscow to Damascus to make mandatory landing in Ankara, Russia was angry, but did not show it. When, on July 18, 2014, the then Prime Minister Erdogan said, without presenting evidence, that the aircraft of Malaysian airlines that was shot down during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, was shot down by the Russians, Russia was angered even more. But still managed to be patient.

Yesterday, however, the situation was different. When the Russian leader Putin said that shooting down the aircraft would seriously affect relations with Turkey, his facial expression, his body language was completely different. The same applies to Foreign Minister Lavrov, when he said that he cancels his visit to Turkey and called Russian tourists not to visit Turkey.

Yesterday there were also many other reactions by Russian parliamentarians, military officials, journalists and ordinary citizens. Reactions like the misguided and extremely enthusiastic proposals of “freezing all bilateral agreements with Turkey,” or the call for an embargo on all Turkish products.

What will Russia do now? Will it cut off the gas supply and leave us to freeze? No, I do not think that Russia will go down this road. Russia will remain faithful to the agreements, otherwise there will be damages. However, the Kremlin will react.

One of these reactions may be some statements or even some evidence that show Turkey’s support to the ‘Islamic State’, for example some evidence for the distribution of oil coming from the “Islamic State” through Turkey.

Russia may also try to isolate Turkey from the alliance against the “Islamic State”. The Kremlin can also strengthen the relations of Moscow with the Kurds. Many different things can happen in Turkey’s relations with «PYD», relations that have been weakened following pressure from Turkey and maybe an office of «PYD» will open in Moscow.

Many problems such as the gas prices or the Armenian issue can be intensified, following the mediation of Russia.

Turkey is the seventh biggest trade partner of Russia. On the other hand, Russia is the second biggest trade partner of Turkey. Many of our energy routes lead to Russia. Trade, tourism, construction and so on.

In Turkey however they speak of rules of engagement. In this country where no rules apply, the rules of engagement are presented as a sacred duty. Without taking into account the balance in international relations and in relations with Russia, they push a button and shoot down a Russian aircraft. “They tested our strength and they got their answer” they say.

And what about the strength of the others? The problems that will arise tomorrow, problems already evident today? What will we do, are going to think about this later?

Yesterday I had a difficult day in Moscow. Countless conversations, emails, questions, live links … and finally the day was over. However, it is difficult to have a good night sleep. Within a day we went years backwards. This was a major setback. We will experience very serious problems with Russia. What the Erdogan – Davutoglu administration did yesterday is perhaps the biggest foreign policy mistake they ever made.

Source: koutipandoras.gr